Is Egypt's ruling military finding power too sweet to give up?

A popular saying in Egypt is "the army and the people are one". It holds a special place for most Egyptians, none more so than during the uprising against the former President Hosni Mubarak when it resonated loudly in Tahrir Square and became one of the slogans of the revolution.

Though many still believe that special relationship between the people and the army remains sacrosanct, there is a creeping fear amongst activists, political parties and experts alike that even with upcoming elections the ruling Superior Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) may not be inclined to relinquish power.

This feeling of foreboding isn’t helped by a series of actions recently undertaken by the Council that have only served to further fan these fears.

A November 1 constitutional principal draft dubbed the ‘El-Selmy Communiqué’ released by the SCAF raised alarm bells, especially amongst political parties participating in the upcoming elections.

Consisting of two parts, the proposal included “supra-constitutional principles and proposed criteria for choosing the constituent assembly mandated with drawing up a new national charter.”

Caused uproar

The communiqué, the result of a meeting between the deputy prime minister Ali El-Selmy and 500 of the country’s leading political figures and forces, caused an immediate uproar with one of the main points of contention being that it granted the army semi-autonomy and far greater political powers than those given to parliament and the President.

Other points of dispute include articles stipulating that the military budget remain confidential; the right of the military to “object” to certain articles of the new constitution; and in the event of the constituent assembly failing in drawing up a new constitution within a six-month period, the SCAF, in its capacity as acting President, would have the authority to draw up a brand-new assembly.

Additional conditions include the right of the army to veto military-related legislation and for it to be decreed as the protector of "constitutional legitimacy", a nicely worded statement which would allow the military to intervene in policymaking.

The coup de grace as put forward in the communiqué is that the proposal, drafted by a transitional government, “doesn’t require agreement by a legitimate, elected body – just adoption by its primary beneficiary, the SCAF.”

Strong objections

Initially, objections to the proposal were strongly led by the Democratic Alliance group, a bloc mainly made up of Islamist political parties. However, other parties and movements such as the April 6 one, Adl Party, Karama Party and presidential hopefuls such as Amr Moussa the former secretary-general of the Arab League, also added their voices of protest and took part in a conference in which a statement was made calling for the withdrawal of the controversial document by Wednesday.

If not, a million man protest is scheduled for Friday.

Ultimately, what this communiqué ensures is that the ruling SCAF would be protected from any form of public enquiry and scrutiny as well as parliamentary ‘supervision’ that is essential in any democracy. The system of checks and balances required in any governmental process and system would not be applicable on the Egyptian military.

Furthermore, the guidelines that have been put in place by SCAF not only prolong the transition to democracy, it also allows them to stay in power as the de facto rulers until after presidential elections.

They have insisted on three rounds of elections to majlis al-shaab (the lower house of parliament) and stretched the timeframe for the elections of both houses of parliament as well as the presidential post until late 2013 – thereby ensuring they remain in power for another two years at least.

Protect wealth

Some analysts maintain the reason behind the recent proposal is that, as with most institutions, the Egyptian army is also looking to protect its financial interests which are numerous and shrouded in secrecy, and such a proposal would give them the time to do so – hence the article on the military’s budget remaining secret.

Estimates on the army’s businesses vary from 5 to 45 per cent of Egypt’s economy and include holdings such as prime real estate, water bottling and manufacturing factories, as well as agricultural farms.

Not forgetting the army’s role in Egypt’s history until the present, it’s not surprising that the ruling SCAF is looking to further cement its position. Whether this means the curtailing the power of an elected parliament or reaching an uneasy truce with the new players in the political field remains to be seen – most probably not before 2013.

But for now all indicators point to an institution that does not want to relinquish its hold and has laid its cards on the table in regards to its position in Egypt’s political scene.