Growing middle class drive Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya to top of beer surveyBy DAILY MONITOR Correspondent | Thursday, August 9  2012 at  11:06

Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya are the continent's largest alcohol consumers, an analysis by Deutsch Bank Market Research has showed, driven by a burgeoning middle class.

The research, based on international beer maker Diageo’s sales on the continent, put Nigeria's market share of the region's total at 36 per cent, South Africa's at 18 per cent and Kenya at 17 per cent.

Deutsch Bank says other African countries have small fragmented markets, each no bigger than six per cent of the total.

"Beyond these two (South Africa and Nigeria) countries the continent’s alcohol market fragments quite quickly with only Angola, Kenya, Cameroon and Congo (DRC) accounting for more than five per cent of the total addressable market,” said Deutsch Bank in its report.

The populations of Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya at 160 million, 50 million and 40 million, respectively, have expanding middle classes which are seen as a key attraction to consumer goods companies such as alcohol makers.

The Deutsch Bank report said the importance of the beer business is reflected in tax revenues.

"Its tax contribution accounts for just under five per cent of Kenyan government revenues and underlines the scale and importance of this business,” it said.

Africa is seen as one of the high growth potential markets for alcohol consumption due to the sustained expansion of the continent’s economies—which is putting more people into the middle-class group.

The growing economies and young population are seen as major boosters to future demand, with Diageo, the world's leading premium drinks business, primed to make even more.

"This [fast growth] means that there is a rapidly growing middle-class that consumer goods companies can target with around 60 million consumers having an income of over $3,000 a year and are expected to grow to 100 million by 2015,” the report said, citing the Standard Bank research.

Fast-growing economies

Using data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it noted that six of the world’s fastest growing economies between 2001 and 2010 were in Africa including Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad, Mozambique and Rwanda.

In the next five years, IMF projects that seven of the top 10 growth countries will be in Africa, one more than was the case in the last 10 years.

The new African countries entering the list are Tanzania, Zambia, Ghana and DRC— which are rich in mineral resources — while those exiting the list are Chad and Rwanda.

The report said the African continent is “the next China”, being “probably the only market or region that could have as big an impact on the industry [consumer sector] as China has in more recent years.”

There is also an opportunity to graduate many drinkers of informal beers into the branded and international beers with growth in incomes and wealth.

"As wealth increases, legal beer consumption generally increases and in Africa there is a huge opportunity to trade consumers up from the informal segment or home brew into the branded sector and then to international premium beers,” said the report.

To show the African market potential, the report uses Diageo’s experience in Nigeria. “Diageo’s largest emerging market and with an operating margin over 30 per cent, provides a template for what is possible in this high-potential continent,” it said.

It notes that Diageo has a close to 30 per cent volume share of the Nigerian beer market and nearer to 40 per cent value share — which it has taken steadily over recent years.