Return to war in Sudan could cost over $100bn

A return to war in Sudan would entail costs in excess of $100 billion, a new report says.

The report by a coalition of European and Africa economic and political think-tanks, was launched in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi November 25. It presents an analysis on the economic costs of the war for not only Sudan, but also her immediate neighbours and the international community.

Titled; The Cost of Future Conflict in Sudan, the 35-page report comes less than 50 days to the landmark referendum by Southern Sudanese on whether to secede or remain part of the vast country.

The January 2011 referendum comes six years after the Comprehensive Peace Agreement brought to an end the 22-year civil conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’ Liberation Movement/Army. An estimated two million people were killed by the conflict and its consequences, while an estimated four million others were displaced between 1983 and 2005.

The report was prepared by Frontier Economic Limited and was co-launched by The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Society for International Development (SID) and the Aegis Trusts.

The outbreak

One specific area from which the huge loss could stem, the report point out, is the oil industry.

Between 10 – 20 per cent of Sudan’s GDP comes from oil. “If oil supply were to be shut down with the outbreak of civil war, then Sudan would immediately lose 10 - 20 per cent of its GDP – equivalent to $6.5 – 13 billion in 2011 for as long as oil production remained shut.’’

“This report demonstrates the high cost of conflict. It implies that domestic, regional and international parties should be asking: ‘Are we doing enough to avoid a war that might cost over $100 billion ruin countless lives’?” the report quotes Mr Mathew Bell, the Associate Director of the London-based Frontiers Economic, as saying.

Frontier Economics Limited is an independent  specialist in use of economics to make better decisions. ISS is a leading African human security research institution which works towards a stable and peaceful Africa, characterised by sustainable development, human rights, the rule of law, democracy collaborative security and gender issues.

SID is a global network of individuals and institutions concerned with development which is participative, pluralistic and sustainable, while The Aegis Trust campaigns for a sustainable peace within Sudan.